September Dealer Survey – 2017
Dealers report a rise in demand for September.
Dealers enjoyed a better September for sales than was originally anticipated. September’s performance overall reveals a particularly buoyant market with many retailers reporting high enquiry levels and strong sales performances.
In the latest study from automotive experts cap hpi, over a third 39% of dealers reported a rise in consumer demand, an improvement over August’s figures.
A further third (33%) stated consumer demand was similar to August with only a quarter (27%) feeling a downturn over the previous month. 32% of those surveyed reported a tightening in used car margins which, when compared to 44% in August, indicating a rise in used car profitability. 39% of dealers stated that stock availability deteriorated in September and feedback revealed that good cars were difficult to source.
As we progress into the final quarter of the year, dealers appear to be positive about used car retail and there appears to be only a small minority with a negative sentiment. October is generally a strong used car month with no visible signals of footfall or enquiry levels tailing-off. Stock is likely to grow over the next few weeks and, as new car handovers gain momentum, forecourt space will start to fill up with part exchange vehicles. The continuing strong used retail demand should help keep dealer stock levels under control but may hold back some of the buying activity until these are either traded out or retailed.
The survey data also reveals that this year September experienced a minor improvement in footfall activity, with 41% reporting an increase compared to 40% this time last year 2015; however, a fifth (22%) cited the same or similar activity to August.
Compared with September 2015’s figures, online activity has seen a slightly more positive result, with nearly half (48%) of the responding dealers showing an increase, compared to 46% last year. However, the volume of dealers indicating a decline has risen from 19% to 24% over the past 12 months.
Philip Nothard, consumer and retail specialist at cap hpi, said: “Analysing dealer sentiment for the coming months, it’s safe to say the majority indicate they believe new car sales in Q4 will be worse or similar to the 536,617 in 2015. Just over a third are anticipating a sales increase.
“So whilst the sentiment on new cars appears to be reasonably steady, the outlook for Q4 on used cars seems marginally more positive; with over half (56%) signifying an improvement on the 2015 result of 1,667,287 and just below a third pointing to an equal performance.
“Private registrations, again, contracted slightly but we still saw the overall year-to-date volume at 1% ahead of 2015. Rental registrations stood at 161.8% of August 2015 figures – on the surface this seems high but in reality, this only equated to an additional 1,839 units over last year.
“The market is still ahead of last year by 2.8% and the results of the final push on new car volumes in September will be instrumental in how the used car market will operate through the final months of 2016 and the start of 2017.”
And whilst a quarter (27%) of dealers reported an improved stock availability, over a third (39%) said it had deteriorated since last month. The remaining 35% reported little or no change in terms of stock availability.
Following the pattern for the year to date sentiment, results concerning finance penetration remain at 49% indicating similar performance to last year, whilst for September, the highest in 2016 so far, 34% reported an increase.
